As Nov. 2 approaches, a few phrases are becoming quite common amongst political experts: “most important election in a generation,” “too close to call,” “a turning point in our history” and “a statistical dead heat,” to name a few.

A poll by rasmussenreports.com, an independent Election 2004 database, puts President Bush ahead of Sen. Kerry (D-Mass.) 47.5 percent to 46.8 percent nationally. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percent, making the race a statistical dead heat. Throughout the campaign, national polls have shown candidates within five points of each other at all times, making the race a practical dead heat, according to past Rasmussenreports.

However, as was made clear in the 2000 election, the Electoral College decides the election.

The importance of the Electoral College has led campaigns to focus on a handful of swing states, or states both candidates have a chance to win. According to a recent Knight Ridder “Behind the Vote” graphic, there are 18 swing states up for grabs. Wisconsin is one of the swing states. In 2000, Wisconsin was home to one of the closest voting races in the nation, with Gore defeating Bush by a paper-thin 0.27 percent margin.

The most recent poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Bush leading by three points in Wisconsin, with four percent undecided as of Aug. 29. While those numbers show a close race, they represent good news for a Bush-Cheney team that on April 29 trailed Kerry by eight points, according to Rasmussen Reports.

“There’s been a real surge of support. It’s been quite phenomenal,” said Laurie Forcier, coordinator for the Bush-Cheney campaign in Eau Claire County. “There is a huge group of people who adore George Bush in this town.”

According to county voting maps from 2000, the election went largely to Bush in eastern Wisconsin, while the western half went to Gore. Gore took Eau Claire County in 2000, as well as most of the counties surrounding it.

However, many deem the extremely close numbers in western Wisconsin a sign the area will be critical to both candidates this year.

“It’s a swing area in a swing state,” said George Twigg, state communications director for the Kerry-Edwards campaign.

Geoffrey Peterson, an assistant professor in the political science department, agreed.

“This is one of the areas that was most divided overall,” he said, referring to the 2000 presidential election.

In an area so closely contested, personal visits like Bush’s trip to Chippewa Falls and Edwards’s recent stop in La Crosse become more likely.

“I know that we’ll see visits again. That’s very, very likely,” Forcier said.

Twigg said the issues he has been finding important to Wisconsin residents are jobs and health care. He said he believes Wisconsinites like John Kerry’s plans for these issues because “he actually has a plan, which George Bush and Dick Cheney do not.”

Forcier agreed the economy is a key issue, and added that terrorism is important to local voters.

“Soccer moms are becoming security moms,” she said.

Both campaigns have been busy making phone calls and knocking on doors to get their messages out. In this area, both campaigns agree Democrats have historically done better.

“Democrats have always done best at the grass roots level,” Twigg said.

Forcier agreed, saying, “We are trying to be as good as the Democrats at (door-to-door politics). The Democrats are really good at that.”

One focus of both campaigns’ is to register voters.

“We have to do better at getting people to participate,” Twigg said.

In a state decided by 0.27 percent of the voters in 2000, the direction new voters go could decide which candidate will receive the 10 electoral votes.

“This election could come down to a few thousand votes again,” Peterson said.

He added one reason the race is so close in this area is the ambiguity of the current economy.

“Studies show that economic variables are the best indicators of election results,” he said. “The economy is such a mixed bag this year.”

While Forcier said the local Bush-Cheney campaign office has received a number of calls praising the president’s economic plan, Twigg has heard more disillusionment with the economy.

Peterson said the truth is in between.

“We took a bigger hit when the economy went in the can,” he said, “but the recovery here has been better than the national average.”

Voters in Wisconsin will have the final say Nov. 2. Until then, both campaigns agree the polls will go back and forth.

“Wisconsin has proven to be a maverick state with independent voters who decide late,” Forcier said. “I think it’s time for the state to vote for a Republican.”

Twigg disagreed.

“George Bush has failed, and people are hungry for a change.”