Primary predictions

Staff writer Andrea Montgomery predicts outcomes of upcoming primary election April 5

Hopefully, every single Wisconsin resident will be rushing to the polls to vote in the primary elections on April 5.

Two main candidates from each party remain. With voting day approaching, it’s time to take a look at which presidential candidate from each party is likely to take Wisconsin.

First off, I’ve always had an interest in politics and a concern for the greater good. As a woman I find it hard to vote for politicians who want to limit my reproductive rights or who know little about the female anatomy. I don’t want to support a candidate that a certain demographic of people cannot vote for out of fear.

I will support whichever democrat wins the nomination, but I personally will be voting for Hillary Clinton in the primary. I think a lot of democrats who are hateful toward Clinton have internalized misogyny. She and Bernie have a lot in common, and he has been in politics even longer than she has.

Everyone has good and bad; Clinton has her flaws and so does Sanders, but in this day and age dealing with international relations is something I think is important and Sanders does not have the vast comprehension of foreign affairs that Clinton accrued during her years as secretary of state.

She is extremely qualified, and I think she would make a great president. I think that Republicans, like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, are afraid of how strong a candidate Clinton is and focus on issues irrelevant to her leadership.

On the Republican side, I believe Ted Cruz will win the primary. He isn’t ahead in the polls by much, but he will be able to pull off a victory. Citizens of Wisconsin are not impressed by Donald Trump’s extremism unlike other states and according to the National Review, Governor Walker may be announcing an endorsement of Cruz.

For Ted Cruz, the Republican Texas senator, his support mostly comes from white evangelical Protestants, people over the age of 50 and those who identify as conservatives, according to a Washington Post-ABC news poll. Compared to Trump, he also has the female vote. According to PBS, the most crucial issues Cruz supports include a constitutional amendment mandating that congress pass a balanced budget as a way to cut down on debt.

PBS also said he wants to end corporate income tax and move toward a flat tax to get rid of the IRS. He has actively opposed President Obama’s executive actions that would allow more undocumented residents to gain legal status. He opposes net neutrality, gay marriage and Obamacare and advocates for stricter abortion laws.

Donald Trump, the opposing Republican from New York state, is a reality showman and billionaire who got his start in real estate. According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll, his support comes from mostly males, those who earn less than $50,000 a year, white non-evangelicals and people with no college degree.

Trump wants the government to cut spending in general to deal with the deficit. He believes climate change is a hoax. He wants to limit restrictions on guns but supports a ban on assault weapons and a longer waiting period to buy a gun. Trump is pro-life and plans to repeal Obamacare and replace it with a universal health care system that would mirror Canada’s. Trump also wants fewer tax brackets with lower rates, according to PBS.

PBS also included Trump’s stance on immigration. Trump calls for a mass deportation of all undocumented individuals and freezing green cards. He also supports temporarily banning all Muslims from entering the United States.

Wisconsin is a crucial state in the Republican primary. If Trump loses his momentum, he will take a big hit. Wisconsin appears to be Trump territory because it is an open primary, which means independents are allowed to vote in the GOP primaries, and Trump does better when independents are allowed to vote.

However, both The Emerson Poll and the Free Beacon/Basswood Research poll conducted in Wisconsin had Cruz beating Trump from one to five percent, which is why I predict Cruz winning.

Mark Block, a political strategist, said this is due to Wisconsin conservatives expecting substantive policy debates and are sophisticated in evaluating candidates. Many Wisconsin residents are unimpressed with Trump’s hateful rhetoric. Trump also lacks the prominent local supporters and talk-radio air cover, unlike Cruz.

This benefits Cruz in suburban Milwaukee where 40 percent of the Republican vote comes from, GOP Wisconsin Strategist Mark Graul said in an interview with Politico. Wisconsin also has reasonable prices for TV ads, and according to the National Review, groups such as the Club for Growth are expected to spend at least $2 Million on anti-Trump ads in the state.

For the Democrats, we have Bernie Sanders. According to Wall Street Journal research on all the votes in primaries and caucuses, his support comes from lower income voters and younger people. According to PBS, He wants to limit corporate and interest group spending in campaigns. He wants to charge companies for carbon emissions and put some of the money toward renewable energy technology.

PBS also lists his plans to increase taxes on the wealthy and certain wall street transactions to make tuition for public universities and preschools free. Sanders wants employers and a progressive income tax to fund a “medicare for all” system. For immigration, he wants to give undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship and supports the waiver of deportation for select groups of immigrants.

Hillary Clinton has been first lady, secretary of state and a lawyer who worked on the Watergate investigation. According to the Wall Street Journal research and an NBC poll, her support comes from boomer women, black and hispanic voters.

PBS sites Hillary’s most prominent issues. She wants to make public college debt free, universal preschool and is against no child left behind. She wants to expand Obamacare and thinks the government should be able to block excessive insurance hikes. She wants to continue to waive deportation of illegal immigrants  and give undocumented citizens a path to legal status. In addition, she supports a federal minimum wage raise to $12 an hour and same-sex marriage.

I think both candidates have an honest shot with the polling being so close. If Sanders loses Wisconsin, he would have to win the majority of the remaining states by a wide margin to catch up with Clinton. With that in mind, I see a close race ahead with Clinton on top.

Whichever candidate you choose to support, I encourage you to vote on April 5. All voters need an approved ID to vote. Voting is a privilege and I believe everyone should exercise this privilege.