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Countdown to the end

Abstract:
Last Thursday, I sat in Zorn Arena, listening to James Howard Kunstler speak, and his thoughts sent chills down my back. Yes, some of his ideas and predictions for our future might be blunt, mean and downright rude to think about - but others need to be addressed....

  • Displaying 1 - 25 of 25

Daniel Draffen

posted 4/25/08 @ 1:25 PM CST

I agree that more people need to find alternative ways to get around, to get to school and work. However, there is a catch-22 here. Most smaller cities and towns, such as Madison, AL, few - if any - bicycle paths, public transport or carpools. It would be great if some tiny portion of the money allocated to roads and highways could be spent to build bike and moped paths and lanes. Only then would it be SAFE for people to use alternate transportation such as bicycles, mopeds, electric scooters, etc. There is a lot - really lot - of improvement needed in passenger rail service. It is mostly non-existant in most parts of the U.S. Until changes in how highway and road projects are undertaken and funded, we are stuck in a car-centric situation with gasoline prices climbing daily.

We can have a greener world or Soylent Green - this choice is ours!!!

John

posted 4/25/08 @ 2:56 PM CST

Just a clarification, The Long Emergency isn't a novel.

Kunstler did recently publish a novel, World Made by Hand.

theham

posted 4/25/08 @ 3:40 PM CST

i am not in the least 'sorry' for anyone today. the idiots in suburbia will starve or freeze to death before they give up their cable tv, cell phones, or suv's . say goodbye to this 'happy motoring' society.

Donald

posted 4/27/08 @ 5:44 PM CST

Catch 22? You don't know the half of it sister.

More like catch 220 million, as in, melt down that many cars, and build trains from the steel, before the roads are safe to travel on...
but the media is supported by auto advertizing...

Originally posted by

theham

i am not in the least 'sorry' for anyone today. the idiots in suburbia will starve or freeze to death before they give up their cable tv, cell phones, or suv's . say goodbye to this 'happy motoring' society.


Unfortunately, there were food riots all around the world in 2007. So it seems the idiots in their SUV's will be able to eat, long after the other half of the world starves.

Chris

posted 4/25/08 @ 7:25 PM CST

I'm stunned by the lack of understanding of the scope of this problem by the author.

In all fairness, I should say that it does take some time to get your mind around something as profound as the end of the American dream.

I have not read "The Long Emergency", but one thing we can control right now is population. Six billion people on earth which can only support 2 billion without cheap oil makes the idea of a large family criminal.

Oh, BTW, the only power you have as a journalist in most mainstream media is the power your editor gives you. Special interests may decide this.

I would urge the author to first to not look for answers from those who came before you, and secondly, read your history if you are trying to find answers to the future.

Alejandro Paschalides

posted 4/25/08 @ 10:14 PM CST

Well at least the author has a decent understanding of the problem and that one exists (most people haven't even heard of peak oil), albeit the implications of it are understated.

She'll be lucky if the worst is that she doesn't get her white picket fence. Millions (ahem, BILLIONS) around the world will not only lose their picket fence but also starve as the price of food skyrockets...if that doesn't start massive resource wars nothing else will.

Originally posted by

Chris

I'm stunned by the lack of understanding of the scope of this problem by the author.

In all fairness, I should say that it does take some time to get your mind around something as profound as the end of the American dream.

I have not read "The Long Emergency", but one thing we can control right now is population. Six billion people on earth which can only support 2 billion without cheap oil makes the idea of a large family criminal.

Oh, BTW, the only power you have as a journalist in most mainstream media is the power your editor gives you. Special interests may decide this.

I would urge the author to first to not look for answers from those who came before you, and secondly, read your history if you are trying to find answers to the future.

Harry Miersma

posted 4/25/08 @ 10:17 PM CST

Some of us, Chris, who have gone before you do know a few things that can help. I am a 60 year old guy in Portland,Or. who city farms. I have chickens and rabbits, a greenhouse and I heat with wood and have not owned an auto in 16 years. If you want, Chris, I can show you how to skin a rabbit and have a great stew.

Robin Nichols

posted 5/09/08 @ 1:22 PM CST

Hello Harry - It all sounds good except the skinning the rabbit part! I'm your old friend Robin down here near Los Angeles... Just decided to do a search for you to say Hi. This was the Only Thing I could find.. I remember you well and your shelves full of Mark Twain.. and the icicles hanging from your chain link fence. I remember the soup you made for dinner and how cold the wind was in Portland and how thick the fur was on your cats! RN

Originally posted by

Harry Miersma

Some of us, Chris, who have gone before you do know a few things that can help. I am a 60 year old guy in Portland,Or. who city farms. I have chickens and rabbits, a greenhouse and I heat with wood and have not owned an auto in 16 years. If you want, Chris, I can show you how to skin a rabbit and have a great stew.

kenneth

posted 4/25/08 @ 10:24 PM CST

i agree with you chris, the author really doesn't get it. when the ability to supply the daily needed available oil falls off, the american dream will seem trivial to many people. survival will more pressing. unless you can make everything you need in life, you will be affected very negatively. when you take into account how oil and natural gas touch our lives, from transportation to food production, practically every product you use is either transported with the use of oil, or produced as a derivative oil. the american dream will persist in one form or another, but with the looming worldwide energy crisis, and the financial meltdown coming characterized with massive inflation, that dream will be a lot different than has persisted throughout the last century plus 8 years.

Frank Kane

posted 4/25/08 @ 11:25 PM CST

"I have more faith in the ambitions of our American people to help our society continue to function at the level we are. Sure, we may see changes in the way our systems work."

You really don't get this at all, do you? The population is going to crash back to a level that can be supported by pre-industrial agriculture.
For North America, that will be between 20 and 50 million people, tops.

Read "Eating Fossil Fuels" by Dale Pfeifer.. He recently expanded it into a book but the original article is available at:

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html

When you've read that and digested it (if you can), then you may be ready for the real stuff, the "Olduvai Theory":

THE OLDUVAI THEORY: TERMINAL DECLINE IMMINENT
http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/olduv_7.htm

PEAK OIL, TOTAL COLLAPSE, AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI
http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/arnett05.htm

Olduvai theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

Our collective myths and/or personal fantasies about the ideal lifestyle we're entitled to are irrelevant to the process. Failure to grasp this just means you won't be one of the survivors.

Deacon

posted 4/26/08 @ 10:57 AM CST

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How close do you wish
to get to the truth of what's
afoot with GLOBALISM
and this LOOMING
FOOD CRISIS?

What we are facing in 2008 is a Third-Way
(socialist/communist/capitalist) conspiracy to
equalize the world's economies, as preface to
installing one-world government; a plan hatched
during the 1940s GATT formulations.

Keep in mind that there is no PEAK OIL crisis--
only a decades-long, purposeful cap on
drilling and refining for oil, in order to put the world
in crisis-mode.

I've provided all the details in my essay, "Planned
Destruction of America" (linked below), which is
my report on Lt. Col. Archibald Roberts' 1968
booklet: "The Anatomy of a Revolution".

Study my essay, then write as if we're all being
led down a path to hell on Earth by secretive,
elite movers and shakers on the Left and Right
(path to hell aka "Third-Way Global Economic
Socialism"). Read and learn and teach the truth:

The EU and the coming North America Union
are products of the 1940s GATT formulations, and
very few analysts are aware of it ((GATT, NAFTA,
and CAFTA are socialistic attempts at equalizing
global economies, in order to install one-world
government under THIRD-WAY Global Economic
Socialism)).

-my missive to Ron Paul's staff, regarding my view
that this financial crisis is not by happenstance nor
mismanagement--but BY DESIGN!:

The Honorable Ron Paul is ignorant of an
ongoing conspiracy to topple, financially, the
West, in order to equalize the world's economies;
for building one-world government under GLOBAL
ECONOMIC SOCIALISM. // The conspiracy began
in the 1940s with the GATT formulations. // Ask why
Greenspan had violated his chairmanship duties
by advising prospective home buyers to take out
an ARM. // Ask why Greenspan had sent out fed
regulators to warn banks that they'd be charged
with RACISM if they didn't loosen home loans for
minority, HIGH RISK home buyers. // Ask why
Greenspan recently, TRAITOROUSLY, had advised
OPEC oil producers to de-link from the U.S. dollar.
// Greenspan - the FEDERAL RESERVE -
has embarked on a purposeful set of monetary
policies designed to destroy the West's financial
underpinnings. // Read about the WHO, the HOW,
and the WHY of it in my below article (first one):

Planned Destruction of America
http://planneddestructionofamerica.blogspot.com/

Corporate America: What Went Wrong?
http://corporateamericawhatwentwrong.blogspot.com/

This one helps to confirm efforts to PURPOSELY trash
America's financial underpinnings:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl031808.html

P.S.

Oil is payoff for the West's efforts at providing
PROXY COMBATANTS for Israel--for protecting
Israel from expanding, encircling Islamic Arabism;
a Jewish nation-state having supporters throughout
the West willing to destroy the entirety of Western
civilization for Israel's sake.

Using food to produce fuel is part of the conspiracy
to generate food riots, in order to destabilize
governments; and this so-called "war on terror" is
also part of the secret plan, although its primary
beneficially is Israel in the exchange of blood and
treasury for oil--as payoff for protecting Israel from
an ever-threatening, encircling Islamic Arabism.

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Deeacon

posted 4/26/08 @ 11:25 AM CST

Postscript:

Read this excerpt from my essay
(pasted belwo), about how NAFTA
creates GLOBAL food shortages:

"Because many nations' agricultural
production will decline under NAFTA
and GATT, in becoming dependent on
the more productive nations' capacity
to export cheaper product to them,
they'll become gravely vulnerable to
any of the exporting nations' food-
production declines, possibly resulting
from bad weather conditions or bad
economies. 'Free trade' in food sets up
a looming catastrophe (read my essay,
GATT: Ubiquitous Treason)...Wouldn't such
worldwide economic interdependence
necessarily set the stage for a worldwide
economic collapse should any one nation
seriously falter? Such a worldwide collapse
would make America's Great Depression
appear like good times. Why aren't the
NAFTA and GATT crafters arguing for more
economic independence for nations - for
rugged individualism among nations – rather
than building this One World interdependency
that their brand of 'free trade' necessarily
engenders?"

The NAFTA Debacle (1995)
http://naftadebacle1.blogspot.com/

Neil Bates

posted 4/26/08 @ 12:05 PM CST

Wow. This is excellent and sobering journalism, fine to see from a student newspaper. Good hit against media shallowness. Keep up the thought-provoking work, and I like that you want us to think about what to do and not be defeatists about diminishing prospects.

Your editorial was linked at http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html, with many interesting other links there.

roger

posted 4/26/08 @ 2:23 PM CST

Unbridled Capitalism because of its need to grow and accumulate is a predatory system it can not exist without the exploitation of people or the destruction of nature unless there is a will to change our life style there is no hope,I'm 82 years old, have lived on 4 continents the changes I have seen in this world are astronomical and very negative

Deacon

posted 4/26/08 @ 3:09 PM CST

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#######


Attn: Roger

Yes, this scribbler agrees!

Read my essays in here about UNETHICAL capitalism:

Corporate America: What Went Wrong?:
http://corporateamericawhatwentwrong.blogspot.com/


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Spentoil

posted 4/26/08 @ 3:27 PM CST

Kudos to Lyssa for writing about this subject in a college newspaper.

A couple of suggestions. First, as soon as possible, get over yourself. This applies to your peers in age and in your chosen profession (the entertainment profession - "journalism" is a charade). Nature does not give a feces if you find "our future might be blunt, mean and downright rude to think about" or whether you have "faith" in your fellow humans. What you want or hope for may or may not be possible.

Second, dispell your naivete. Learn more about the subject of peak oil itself, and then learn more about the history of civilizatoins and about the human animal. Then you will be equipped intellectually and can perhaps write serious and meaningfull articles on this subject when you graduate. Maybe you can help redeem your profession.

kenneth

posted 4/26/08 @ 11:04 PM CST

when you are finished with peak oil, unfortunately you will need to read up on peak coal, peak natural gas, peak uranium etc,. years of worldwide growth at all costs has taken it's toll. as the production of the above fall off, something will have to take their place. solar, wind, geothermal all sound good but i can't see any of them scaling to the necessary size. and remember to build a new energy infrastucture would require vast sums of the very energy supplies that are reaching peak production. you can't build a solar infrastructure with solar energy. we all need to consider doing the best we can for ourselves, and our families in this coming crisis. sitting back and waiting for the "american exceptionalism", or our elected officials, who by the way are doing more to keep this out of mainstream discussion, will leave you in dire straits. depending on the free market, and technology should be interesting solutions, considering that they are both behind this problem.

Deacon

posted 4/27/08 @ 6:35 AM CST

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#######

Is PEAK OIL a Lie?
http://www.rense.com/general67/PRICE.HTM

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Walter Beisel

posted 4/27/08 @ 11:55 AM CST

There is nothing new in this world, only history repeating itself. You would have to be at least 80 years old, a student of history and economics to realize that the situation we presently experience is not an accident. I leave it up to your imagination to get the drift.

In a nutshell and keeping it very simple: The economy was not doing so good, so it had to be infused with NEW blood. The North American public had been baited over the years to CHARGE, CHARGE anything if needed or not. Most people born after WW2 were living under the impression that the sky was the limit.

Every one was entitled to live in luxury, have a house, 2 or more cars, every electronic gadget under the sun and of course CHARGE IT.

A lot of fault goes to the financial institutions who encouraged people to buy, buy and buy. Then came the housing francy. Those who were less educated believed that they also were entitled to be home owners and live like the rich. Little or Nothing down was enjoyed by hundreds of thousands.

Did these people really believe that they were entitled to these luxuries?

They should have known that the system works entirely different. A very primitive observation - when thousands of plainloads of working people can be enjoying their vacations in exclusive hotels in far away places, that was the time when the super rich put a stop to it.

Simple, but true. The whole story of the present financial disaster is more complicated but this fata morgana could not last forever.

Sorry folks, those who charged instead of saving are now paying the price. If feel sorry for everyone who is facing hardship, BUT these people have no one to blame but themselves.

W.

Rene

posted 4/27/08 @ 5:18 PM CST

I grew up in the forties and fifties. By 1966 and beyond, I hated what the USA was becoming and where it was headed. I hated the new generations stupid assed worthless pursuits then, and even more today. What has become the USA today,is a nightmare. VERY,VERY little is good and worth the costs to the resources,environment,and tax dollars squandered.
The American societies ideas of whats important to their daily lives proves more and more to me,that we need to fall and fall hard. America needs a severe comeupance and a welt producing, bruising slap from reality. Paris Hilton/Linsey Lohan/Brittany Spears/etc.take note!
This insanity of corporate greed,mixed with everyones hendonism,gluttony,idol worship,dumbed down brains, has to end.
I'd like to see 3/4 of the American society wipped out. Get rid of 3/4 of all buildings and roads, close nearly 3/4 of all businesses, especially mega stores of any kind. Give 50% of all reclaimed, building and road free lands, back to Native American Tribes.( no other races allowed )
They got screwed so severly 200+ years ago, we owe them an unpayable debt. Giving them back half of their national lands would be a good starting point! I figure we owe them about 100 Trillion Ameros(its coming) as well. The damage modern society has done to the environment will take a 1000 years for itself to recover if it can.
The planet needs to shed 7/8ths of the total human population.
There has to be a NEW WAY of THINKING by humans. Starting with the idea that NO ONE OWNS ANYTHING. WE share the planet with other just as important creatures, and have no more claim to any thing than a fricking fly does.
Humans need to start walking everywhere. End all powered forms of tranportation period. No cars, no planes, no motor boats/ships, nothing! Anything with wheels, wings, engines, motors, is banned forever. Allow only sails, kite systems. Wood framed hand gliders would be individually made, not manufactured. End all industrial manufacturing. Teach arts and crafts skills. Re-invent the agri-culture based localized tribe village.
Wars and conflicts are forbidden. No one owns anythings, and can never own anything.
We need to stop killing things for sport, and become VEGANS as well.
Not one of the 1/8th humans left should have more than one child for 1000 years. Maybe then then Earth could breathe free and recover. If not, then all Humans need to die! Going to another planet is not the answer either. I think we have outlived our epoch already by a wide margin.
Scrap all religions,and burn every document,book,manuscript, parchment,idol,image,carving,painting,sculpture and any other historical artifact that recalls the bullscat that has caused more problems for mankind than all wars and dieases combined. Lets see if man can get over himself and his deathcult like ways. Teach that there is nothing called a god, and there is nothing beyond life. You are born, you learn every one is an equal, you're taught to help out the village, you share the bounty of harvest, you laugh, sing, cry together, you find your life long mate, maybe reproduce, and then someday die. Thats it! That is the circle of life. Bring back innocence!
I expect Hundereds of gigantic mushroon clouds to plume into the stratosphere around the globe ending any chance for anything to survive
in the next 20 years. So don't hold out hope for Mankinds rebirth. I can see a barren lifeless darkened earth ahead. Not an enlightenment of any kind. WHY? Because we are a stupid species with egos,weapons and transport systems. Which spells=ENDGAME AHEAD!

scott

posted 4/28/08 @ 10:55 AM CST

[QUOTE id="de3d5440-51fb-4fcd-bc90-657a11e994c4"]
We need to stop killing things for sport, and become VEGANS as well.
Not one of the 1/8th humans left should have more than one child for 1000 years. Maybe then then Earth could breathe free and recover. If not, then all Humans need to die! QUOTE]

You're idea of all humans only having one child for the next 1000 years would ineed mean that "all humans need to die." Some quick calculations result in us having .75 people total left after 30 generates of halving the population at 1/8th of current levels. I'm sure that wasn't what you really wanted...although I could be wrong, but at least learn to use a calculator before throuwing out numbers.

Yes, we human beings have been abysmally short sighted in how we use the planet. Still, if you're so gung-ho on ridding the planet of us, why don't you go first?

Duncan

posted 4/27/08 @ 6:16 PM CST

If you're interested in hearing more of what Kunstler has to say, check out http://kunstlercast.com

Each Thursday Kunstler does a 15 minute podcast. Transcripts are published afterwards.

To record a comment or ask a question for Kunstler to answer on the program, call toll free (866)924-9499

irvthom

posted 4/28/08 @ 12:07 AM CST

I agree with others: excellent article for a college press. I am fascinated to note that it attracts comments of agreement from a very older generation, which I am also a part of. I am beginning to sense that people are starting to face the awesome truth of massive changes now underway. If my instincts are correct, the shock is going to be tremendous when it finally sinks in, that the days of affordable travel are coming to an end. I have no doubt that we'll see an effort to get steam back on the rails, and a rail network built like it should have been. Flying is going to go out of style, as no airline will have the patronage to continue the kind of service they now offer. I only wish I could be around to see it happen, but it's still several decades away. Yes, the world will be a much more satisfying place when the pace of things gets back to a bicycle and foot level. We'll have mass transit, sure, but not the sort we have today.

There are those like Deacon who cannot bring themselves to accept that the end of oil is real, that the resource was always finite and that we have thoughtlessly used it to the max, without regard for the fact that it had to end, someday. We are like a flock of kids who play, play, play ... and when it ends feel put upon and denied by some conspiratorial being (like out parents). What did they really expect? There is only the earth, as a habitable planet, and everything on it (including space itself) is finite.

Russ

posted 4/28/08 @ 12:32 AM CST

Number one: If anyone knows who this Deacon character is, would you please see to it that he gets back on his meds, stat?

Number two: Jim Kunstler will likely get a chuckle out of seeing (and he will see, --this article has been cross posted at energybulletin.net and theoildrum.com, he reads both) ---of seeing The Long Emergency referred to as a novel...

Number Three: The American "Dream", the American "way of life" (including student newspapers and their sponsoring state universities), are ALREADY road-kill on the highway of history. It just hasn't really sunk in for y'all just yet, but you're about to get educated double-time.

Deacon

posted 5/09/08 @ 1:43 PM CST

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Attn: Russ

To understand better your emotion-
based response to my above postings,
read my analysis of the underlying
psychology of political affiliations:

Underlying Psychology of Political Affiliation
http://underlyingpsychologyofpolitics.blogspot.com/


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